Line movement is a term used in sports betting to describe when the odds or point spread for a game fluctuate between the time the bet is opened and the time the game begins. For this article, line movement refers to any change in odds before starting a game.
Being able to recognize line movement and – more significantly – project line movement will assist you in getting the best possible price on your bets while also providing you with helpful insight into navigating the world of sports betting.
Betting Lines and Why They Move
In sports betting, the betting line can refer to any form of wager, including a point spread, a money line, an over or under total, and more. Sportsbooks create betting lines to maximize their chances of making a profit, which is usually accomplished by shifting lines as money pours in on a specific side of a wager on a particular outcome. Sportsbooks must maintain a healthy success balance between the amount of money placed on each side of a betting line. Directing line movement is their most effective hedging exposure and maximizing earnings.
When to Bet and How to Bet Line Movement
You now understand that line movement most frequently occurs when a significant majority of the money is bet on one particular side, and you can use this knowledge to your advantage by understanding when to bet on a specific team or number.
So, given that lines are constantly shifting, when should you put your bets? As a general rule, place your bets on favorites as soon as possible. Underdog odds tend to rise as the game draws closer, so if the price of an underdog bet isn’t very appealing at the moment, try waiting to place your wager.
Always remember that line movement is a fluid phenomenon. What appears to be a fantastic play in the morning can turn out to be a disaster by the time the evening comes around. Before placing a wager, make sure that you understand why a line is traveling in a particular direction or what could cause a line to move in a specific direction.
Advanced Line Movement Betting Strategies
A few other frequent betting strategies revolve around line movement that you should be aware of. When making sharp money in sports betting, these methods – middling, playing key numbers, and buying points – are all critical to maximizing your winnings.
Middling. The first strategy is known as “middling.” It is one of the most prevalent methods of taking advantage of movement in the line. The term “middling” refers to betting on both sides of a bet when the line has shifted significantly, resulting in a “meddle” outcome in which you can win on both sides of the wager.
Playing Key Numbers. The second technique is to place bets on specific numbers. It is far more critical in football (and to a lesser extent, basketball) than in games with fixed run lines or puck lines, such as baseball and hockey, where vital numbers are not as important. The importance of key numbers in football (particularly in the NFL) cannot be overstated. Key numbers are those that, more often than not, determine the outcome of a game by determining the difference between the two teams’ scores.
Buying Points. Buying points is the third strategy available in the realm of line movement. When betting on football or basketball, the option of purchasing points gives the bettor the ability to move the point spread or totals in their favor. A bettor who buys betting points can reduce the amount of money they wager by a half-point, a full point, or 1.5 points when betting favorites. When betting on underdogs, a bettor can choose to add a half-point, a full point, or 1.5 points to their wager.
Knowing and playing key numbers is also essential for buying points, and bookmakers are well aware of this. When betting on or off critical numbers 3 or 7, most sportsbooks will charge you twenty-five cents rather than ten cents. Being able to project line movement will assist you in purchasing points in a specific direction opposite to line movement.